Terrorist attacks will occur in India-controlled Kashmir. India swears to blame and retaliate Pakistan. A few days later, India is running airstrikes on Pakistani territory, claiming that both sides are exchanging fires and one side is shooting down the other fighter.
It can describe the events that took place in 2019 or the events that took place this week.
Terrorist attacks will occur in India-controlled Kashmir. India swears to blame and retaliate Pakistan. A few days later, India is running airstrikes on Pakistani territory, claiming that both sides are exchanging fires and one side is shooting down the other fighter.
It can describe the events that took place in 2019 or the events that took place this week.
At the time, a retaliatory airstrike in New Delhi in the Pakistani town of Barakot led to the shooting of one of the jets, one of the Russian Mig-21 bisons, which had pilots been captured and then returned by Pakistani forces. India claimed that one of Pakistan's F-16 jets had also been shot down, but this was never proven. Foreign policy reported at the time was challenged by the US troops who sold the jets to Pakistan and monitored their use.
However, on Wednesday it was Pakistan with unconfirmed claims claiming it had shot down five Indian fighters, including the MIG-29 and Sukhoi SU-30 (both in Russian) and five Indian fighters, including India's new French-made Rafalejet. India has rebutted these claims on social media, but officials from the French intelligence agency told CNN that at least one of the Rafales had actually been shot down. It is also worth noting that Pakistan's deputy prime minister and foreign minister Ishak Dal told Congress that the country had been shooting down a Chinese J-10C fighter jet, an Indian jet.
Through mirror image scenarios of attacks, strikes, claims and counterclaims, the fighters used by India and Pakistan, respectively, tell the story of six years of immense geopolitical change between the two conflicts.
The Indian Air Force is historically It relied heavily on equipment from Russia, a Cold War-era holdover in which New Delhi was largely in alignment with the former Soviet Union. According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Institute (SIPRI), Russian arms sales accounted for more than half of India's imports between 2015 and 2019, but that fell sharply from 72%, 72%, as India began its efforts to diversify Arsenal.
That shift was reflected in the latest Sipri numbers released last year, bringing great benefits to the West. France has accounted for 33% of arms sales to India over the past five years, Israel has accounted for 13% and the US has accounted for 10%. Meanwhile, some of that pie in Russia fell to 36% (although India's existing military equipment remains overwhelmingly Russian).
That list is driven by the purchase of India's 36 Rafales between 2020 and 2022 as part of a deal between the Indian government and Dassault, the French maker of the Jets. “Absolutely, the most capable thing in Indian arsenals is Lafale,” said Richard Abraffia, managing director of consultant aviation advisory and FP contributor. He added that at this week's India bombing, “it was probably the front edge of the spear.” India, like last Monday, signed yet another contract with Dassault, delivering 26 more Rafales to the Navy.
The changes in India's arms procurement policy also reflect a close relationship with the US. This has steadily improved since the turn of the millennium and has steadily improved under Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who came to power in 2014. A typical Atomic MQ-9B Guardian Loan based in San Diego. US aviation giants Rocky Martin and Boeing each actively bid for Indian military-guided fighters (F-16 and F/A-18) almost a decade ago, as did Swedish maker Saab, but instead India picked up Rafares. “That's still a great hope,” Abrafia said. “In the end, India needs hundreds of jets.”
Like the military of Pakistan, its geopolitics, I went in the opposite direction. The US-made F-16 (among other American materials) was the mainstay of the Pakistan Air Force in the early 1980s, when US President Ronald Reagan approved the first sale of the Jets of 40 to help Pakistan fight the Soviet Union in nearby Afghanistan. The Jets became a permanent symbol of Pakistan's air force, a barometer of US-Pakistan relations, and several suspensions (with broader military aid) over jet sales continued for decades, consistent with the collapse of bilateral relations.
The dynamics of that interaction continue to this day. US President Donald Trump's administration greenlit earlier this year to monitor Pakistan's F-16 use, but Trump has suspended most security aid to Pakistan over concerns about terrorist support during his first term in 2018.
Meanwhile, Pakistan's proximity to Washington's most important enemy, China, is reflected in the purchase of weapons. According to SIPRI data, China was Pakistan's second-largest arms exporter between 2006 and 2010, with 38% of US 39 sales being 38% of sales in 2024, while China accounted for 81% of arms sales to Islamabad, making it perhaps the largest supplier.
China's fighter aircraft manufacturing capabilities have progressed significantly in recent years, with its People's Liberation Army accumulating 195 fifth-generation J-20 aircraft, more commonly known as powerful dragons. The aircraft's stealth capabilities compare to advanced US jets such as the F-22 and F-35, along with advanced radar and sensing.
Pakistan's J-10 is the generation behind its cutting edge, but even so, “it's the most capable thing Pakistan has,” said the sentiment that Abrafia said was not very true to the JF-17 jets produced in collaboration with China. The biggest challenge for Pakistan to keep its plane fleet at pace in the future is its long-standing economic struggle. “It's not that Pakistan step up to the plate and spends $10 billion on a new fighter package,” he added.
However, the latest big fire is likely to spur both countries to double their military strengthening. “The melancholy reality is that this is something that both parties have prepared for the past decades,” Abrafia said. “Even if it's limited to what happened, hopefully there's even more chances they'll make more purchases.”
