Mark Carney's liberals had a 4% lead over Pierre Polyeive's conservatives on the eve of Monday's general election, new IPSOS data suggests.
However, the tight national race will blur the advantages of the Liberal Party in the major provinces of Ontario and Quebec, and will determine whether the party will receive four consecutive orders from Canadian voters.
The IPSOS poll, which was implemented for Global News and released on Sunday, comes with liberals supporting 42% nationwide, followed by 38% (only 9%) for conservatives and new Democrats in Jagmeat Sing.
The polls also suggest that most Canadian voters have made up their minds if there is a day to go.
“At this later period, only 5% of Canadians were undecided, and 71% of those who made up their minds are “absolutely certain” their choice,” Ipsos said in a statement.
“Because the votes are trapped, this question focuses on voters' votes and motivations.”
Ipsos' investigations show Carney liberals leading in every part of the country except Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, which is bad news for the Conservatives.
Breaking the national news
For news that affects Canada and the world, sign up to break news alerts delivered directly when they occur.
“The key to a liberal victory is probably seen in Canada's most populous province. In Ontario, the Liberals lead the conservatives at eight points, while in Quebec, the liberals benefit from double-digit leads over all their other rivals,” Ipsos said in a statement.
More videos for more information about politics
“In addition, liberals are leading the large margins of the Atlantic Canada, and are sticking to the smallest advantages in British Columbia, one of Canada's most competitive regions, especially with the collapse of the NDP.”
Poilliebre had to infiltrate to shoot for a government in Ontario, given the enormous number of seats to acquire hands in Canada's most populous province. According to IPSOS, liberals maintain a point advantage of 8%, 39%, 47%, in the state.
In Quebec, 25% block quebecoa, 24% conservatives and the New Democrats are fourth far away with just 6% support, following 40% of liberals.
In British Columbia, which is predicted as a three-way race for the majority of the campaign, 42% are liberals, 39% are conservatives, and 13% are NDP. Green Party has 3% support in the state, potentially putting the seat of the Saanich Gulf Islands of party co-leader Elizabeth May.
Trend now
LAPD releases nervous body cam footage from filming Weezer Bassist's wife
Last-minute Voters Guide for Canadian Federal Elections
“Another key to liberal success is their big lead among people over 55, and they are usually most likely to show up and vote.
“In contrast, among these 35-54, conservatives lead the liberals from 43% to 38%. Of the younger voters ages 18-34, the Liberals and the Conservatives are linked to 38%, with the NDP slightly improving (15%).”
To curb the recent trend, Ipsos found that the benefits of conservatives among male voters have decreased, with 42% of male voters supporting the Polyerebre party with 40% supporting liberals. Of the female voters, 44% are behind the Kearney party, compared to just 35% who support conservatives.
“As always, voters decide on the composition of the parliament, and the liberal victory scale can motivate supporters of each party to vote, allowing any party to translate those goodwill into cast votes,” Ipos said.
IPSOS surveyed 2,500 eligible voters for global news from April 22 to April 26, with a mix of online and interview phone surveys. The number of nations is within 2.4 percentage points, and is considered to be accurate within 19 of the 20, but the error is large in local and regional samples.
&Copy 2025 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
