Prediction market users have made and profited from big bets on the bombing of Iran by the US and Israeli militaries.
According to Bloomberg, $529 million was traded on Polymarket in contracts related to the timing of the attacks. An analysis by analytics firm Bubble Maps SA found that six newly created accounts correctly bet that the US would attack Iran by February 28, earning them $1 million in profits. This is an act that could indicate insider trading.
While the bet may simply reflect widespread speculation about U.S. intentions in Iran, Bubble Maps CEO Nicholas Vaiman said the flow of information “related to war and conflict” coupled with the anonymity of polymarkets “could create incentives for informed participants to act early.”
Analysts firm Policycites also noted in January that there was a clear spike in bets that Iran's now-deceased Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would no longer serve in his role by the end of March.
Responding to concerns that such bets could inherently provide financial incentives for assassination, Karshi CEO Tarek Mansour said: “We do not list markets that are directly tied to death. When there are markets where the potential outcome is death, we design rules to prevent people from profiting from death.” He added that Kalsi will repay all commissions from these bets.