Sanae Takaichi, the new leader of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (Liberal Democratic Party), shakes hands with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba after winning the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election held in Tokyo on October 4, 2025.
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Under normal circumstances in Japan, the leader of the ruling party becomes the prime minister, especially during election cycles.
However, these are not normal times in Tokyo, and outgoing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba continues to serve as interim prime minister even after stepping down on September 7th.
Sanae Takaichi, the current president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party and a woman in line to become Japan's first female prime minister, faces a tougher path to power after the sudden departure of her coalition partner Komeito.
Komeito's sudden departure from the ruling coalition on October 10 has left Japan's parliament, the Liberal Democratic Party, further in the minority, opening the door to potential opposition chaos.
According to local media reports, the vote to choose the next prime minister was originally scheduled for Wednesday, but the extraordinary Diet session was postponed to October 21 due to Komeito's withdrawal.
Potential unified candidates
Opposition unity seemed unlikely until the ruling coalition collapsed last Friday.
However, over the weekend, the Japan Times reported that the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party plans to seek support from Komeito as a co-prime ministerial candidate.
On the other hand, the Democratic Party of the People (Democratic Party), the fourth party in the House of Representatives, denied the possibility of forming a new coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party. Democratic Party representative Yuichiro Tamaki has reportedly expressed his intention to become prime minister if nominated by the Constitutional Democratic Party.
Other local media have also reported that Tamaki may emerge as a unified candidate for the opposition party.
The Liberal Democratic Party remains the largest voting bloc in parliament, holding 196 seats in the 465-seat lower house.
According to a memo from Bank of America, the two-stage run-off election for prime minister will attract a lot of attention, with the top two candidates from the first round facing off if no candidate wins a majority. If different candidates are selected for the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors, the selection for the House of Representatives will take precedence.
“Although they are struggling to maintain unity, the three main opposition parties…combined hold more seats than the Liberal Democratic Party. Therefore, we will need to closely monitor the debate to see which party each party (including Komeito) intends to support in the runoff,” the BofA memo said.
If the Constitutional Democratic Party, Democratic Party, and Ishin allied together, they would win 210 seats, which would still fall short of the 233 seats needed for a majority, but would exceed the Liberal Democratic Party's 196 seats.
A blessing in disguise?
But some analysts said the collapse of the ruling coalition could be a blessing in disguise for the Liberal Democratic Party.
If the alliance between the Liberal Democratic Party and New Komeito Party is broken, the party may be able to advance long-delayed policy goals, Tomohiko Taniguchi, a special advisor at the Fujitsu Future Research Center, told CNBC's “Squawk Box Asia.”
He pointed out that when Komeito was in Japan's cabinet, the Liberal Democratic Party had to make concessions, especially on social issues.
“However, with Komeito's withdrawal, if Takaichi becomes prime minister, he will be able to push forward with policies that the Liberal Democratic Party has pursued for years, such as some tax cuts and tax changes,” Taniguchi said.
Democratic Party of Japan leader Yuichiro Tamaki speaks in front of the National Diet Building in Tokyo, Friday, August 1, 2025.
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Jesper Coll, a specialist director at Monex Group, said Komeito, whose approval ratings are declining, has “outlived its purpose” for the Liberal Democratic Party.
“Mr. Takaichi is forcing this issue and thereby actually setting the direction for the new Liberal Democratic Party,” Coll said.
But other analysts were more critical of Takaichi. A Nov. 13 memo from Quantum Strategy said Takaichi's leadership had been shaken, saying he had “completely made a pig's breakfast” after losing his Liberal Democratic Party partner with whom he had been in a coalition for 26 years.
Even if she were to secure the premiership, Quantum warned that she could become a “lame duck” leader with limited ability to govern.
Unless a snap election is held, the next general election will not be held until October 2028.